A VIEW OF THE BOTTOM

From: ECONOMIC FOCUS

Volume 13, Issue 6
For the week of February 16, 2009
A VIEW OF THE BOTTOM
Celia Chen of Economy.com delivers some of the most insightful and accurate observations in the industry. Recently, she published her commentary, "Housing in Crisis: A Bottom Comes Into View", in which she highlighted some interesting observations and predictions:
"The worst housing downturn in memory will stabilize by the end of the year.
The severe correction has helped to rebalance many of the excesses that built up earlier in the decade.
Although economic conditions are dark, swift and strong policy action will help end the correction.
The subsequent recovery in housing markets will be weak.”
The main theme is that the U.S. housing market has gone from bad to worse and dragged the broader economy into a serious downturn. Washington has not yet been able to break the downward spiral. But key to her prediction is that President Obama and the new Congress will quickly act to stimulate the economy and to mitigate mortgage foreclosures.
What Is The Evidence Of A Bottom?
"Prices are coming back to earth", say Ms. Chen. This is evidenced by many of the pricing excesses of recent years having corrected, noting that housing prices have fallen in about 70% of all metro areas, according to Fiserv's Case-Shiller home price index.
"Counting on help - thus, notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the nation’s housing downturn is coming into view. This outlook assumes stronger action by policymakers. Even with further government intervention, the recession will keep the housing market form fully recovering until the end of 2009. But with such help, sales are likely at bottom, stabilized by foreclosures. Construction will hit bottom in the first half of this year, although the pace of housing starts will remain depressed until 2011. The national Chase-Shiller house price index will stabilize by year end. From peak to trough, Moody’s Economy.com expects that total single-family home sales will have declined by 40%, housing starts by 70%, and the CSI by about 36%."
"...if the government is unable to implement an effective plan, the housing market could weaken further. In our worst-case scenario, depreciation in house prices would continue and deepen for a total 45% peak-to-trough decline."
WASHINGTON, ARE YOU LISTENING?? Key Economic Reports Released This Week
RELEASEDATE
ECONOMICINDICATORS
RELEASEDBY
CONSENSUS
Wt.
INFLUENCE ONINTEREST RATES
Tue 02/171:00 pm et
Weekly Bill Auction
Dept. of the Treasury
N/A
**
If strong demand If weak demand
Tue 02/171:00 pm et
NAHB Housing Indexfor Feb '09
National Associationof Home Builders
N/A
**
Undetermined
Wed 02/187:00 am et
MBA Mog Apps Survey for week ending 02/13
Mortgage Bankers Association of America
N/A
*
Undetermined
Wed 02/188:30 am et
Housing Sts / Bldg Permitsfor Jan '09
Bureau of the CensusDept. of Commerce
530.00M
***
If above consensus If below consensus
Wed 02/188:30 am et
Import & Export Pricesfor Jan '09
Bur. of Labor StatisticsDepartment of Labor
ImPrice -1.5%
*
If above consensus If below consensus
Wed 02/189:15 am et
Ind Prod/Cap Utilizationfor Jan '09
Federal Reserve Board
IP -1.4%CU 72.4%
***
If above consensus If below consensus
Wed 02/182:00 pm et
FOMC Meetingsfor 01/27 - 01/28 meeting
Federal Reserve BoardFed Open Market Committee
N/A
****
Determines Policy
Thu 02/198:30 am et
Jobless Claimsfor weekending 02/14
Bur. of Labor StatisticsDepartment of Labor
623K
*
If above consensus If below consensus
Thu 02/198:30 am et
Producer Price Indexfor Jan '09
Bur. of Labor StatisticsDepartment of Labor
0.2%core 0.1%
***
If above consensus If below consensus
Thu 02/1910:00 am et
Philadelphia Fed Surveyfor Feb '09
Federal Reserve Board
-25.0
**
Undetermined
Fri 02/208:30 am et
Consumer Price Indexfor Jan ' 09
Bur. of Labor StatisticsDepartment of Labor
0.3%core 0.1%
***
If above consensus If below consensus
* Low Importance
** Moderate Importance
*** Important
**** Very Important

Oblivious and Clueless

Volume 13, Issue 5
For the week of February 9, 2009
OBLIVIOUS ON WALL STREET CLUELESS IN WASHINGTON
Wall StreetWhatever has led the executives on Wall Street to believe they can take taxpayer's bail out dollars and not be accountable for how they spend it? Nobody should expect to spend like a drunken sailor with one hand while dipping the other into public coffers. But that is exactly what the bailed out banks and corporations have been doing.
High end corporate junkets to plush spas, humongous golden parachutes for loser executives, expensive new corporate jets, private jets to chauffeur about, and gigantic bonuses for the non-achievers. Oh, what’s a few million here or there? The problem is, the Wall Street players don’t play with their own money; it’s supplied by the endless flow of stockholders. So when that pipeline dries up and they are in dire straits they just turn on the spigot to public funds...bailout dollars. Should we be surprised when those in a habit of using OPM (other people’s money) turn to taxpayer’s (Washington), for their next fix?
Then there is Madoff, who made off with billions of investor dollars. How in the world did he fly so many years under the radar of industry and regulatory watchdogs? But, then again there was at least one industry stalwart that cried wolf for nearly a decade and was ignored by both Wall Street and Washington. Madoff maybe the prince of the Ponzi. This may be the largest private scheme, but it pales in comparison to the king, more about that later.
We are being led to believe that no one on Wall Street had any idea that the junk-loan house of cards would one day implode, just party on.
WashingtonNow, let’s talk about Washington. All through this, the regulators and overseers are clueless to the inevitable disaster as they encourage and promote the bad behavior.
This crew suffers from the same addiction to other people’s money, only it's the taxpayers'. Their behavior mirrors Wall Street.
Consider the recent four star junkets taken by members of Congress and their families. Perhaps the use of government planes to commute between home and Washington. Or special interest contributions to the campaign coffers.
It is little wonder that first bailout dollars go first to their twins on Wall Street and then into their own earmarks and pork barrel projects. They can always raise taxes or borrow from China.
Do you remember the prince of the Ponzi? Well, meet the king. Take a close look at the social security system or any number of other entitlement programs and you have the model Wall Street is mimicking.
Oblivious and clueless, you bet, the whole lot. And now they’re going to fix it with more of our money?
Key Economic Reports Released This Week
RELEASEDATE
ECONOMICINDICATORS
RELEASEDBY
CONSENSUS
Wt.
INFLUENCE ONINTEREST RATES
Mon 02/091:00 pm et
Weekly Bill Auction
Dept. of the Treasury
N/A
**
If strong demand If weak demand
Tue 02/1010:00 am et
Wholesale Tradefor Dec '08
Bureau of the CensusDept. of Commerce
-0.7%
**
Undetermined
Tue 02/101:00 pm et
3-Year Note
Dept. of the Treasury
$32.0Boffering
**
If strong demand If weak demand
Wed 02/117:00 am et
MBA Mtg Apps Survey for week 02/06
Mortgage Bankers Association of America
N/A
*
Undetermined
Wed 02/118:30 am et
International Tradefor Dec '08
Bureau of the CensusDept. of Commerce
-$37.0B
**
If above consensus If below consensus
Wed 02/111:00 pm et
10-Year Note
Dept. of the Treasury
$21.0B
**
If strong demand If weak demand
Wed 02/112:00 pm et
Treasury Budgetfor Jan '09
Dept. of the Treasury
-$78.5B
*
Undetermined
Thu 02/128:30 am et
Jobless Claimsfor week ending 02/07
Bur. of Labor StatisticsDepartment of Labor
612K
*
If above consensus If below consensus
Thu 02/128:30 am et
Retail Salesfor Jan '09
Bureau of the CensusDept. of Commerce
-0.8%x-autos -0.4%
****
If above consensus If below consensus
Thu 02/1210:00 am et
Business Inventoriesfor Dec '08
Bureau of the CensusDept. of Commerce
-0.6%
*
If above consensus If below consensus
Thu 02/121:00 pm et
30-Year Treasury Bond
Dept. of the Treasury
$14.0B
**
If strong demand If weak demand
Fri 02/1310:00 am et
Consumer Sentimentfor Feb ' 09
University of Michigan
61.1
*
If above consensus If below consensus
* Low Importance
** Moderate Importance
*** Important
**** Very Important
This Economic Report was sent to: schwarde@hotmail.com